India’s imports of Russian crude oil rose to a 10-month high of 1.96 million barrels per day (bpd) in May 2025, as discounted prices continued to drive demand, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler.
As the world’s third-largest oil importer and consumer, India imported approximately 5.1 million bpd of crude oil in May. Of this, Russia remained the top supplier, accounting for over 38% of the total. Iraq followed with 1.2 million bpd, while Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the U.S. contributed 615,000 bpd, 490,000 bpd, and 280,000 bpd, respectively.
India traditionally sourced most of its oil from the Middle East. However, since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, Russian oil has rapidly gained market share, rising from under 1% to 40-44% of India’s imports within months driven by steep discounts caused by Western sanctions.
Urals crude, Russia’s key export grade, has often traded significantly below global benchmarks like Brent and Dubai. In May, average FOB prices for Urals hovered around USD 50 per barrel, well under the USD 60 price cap set by G7 nations in 2022. This has bolstered Indian refiners’ margins and attracted substantial shipping capacity, including tankers formerly used for non-sanctioned trades.
While Russian crude is expected to maintain a 30-35% share in India’s import mix, there are some emerging constraints:
- Russian refinery throughput could rise by 100,000-300,000 bpd, potentially cutting export volumes.
- Seasonal factors like the monsoon may reduce refinery runs in India, temporarily lowering imports.
- Middle Eastern supplies, although under pressure from Russian competition, remain a strategic long-term source.
India is expected to retain a diversified crude basket, but Russian oil will remain central, as long as price advantages and payment mechanisms remain intact.