India, the world’s largest rice exporter, is anticipated to keep export restrictions in place long into next year, keeping the staple grain at near-record highs since the 2008 food crisis.
Lower pricing and large stocks have helped India become one of the world’s leading shippers during the last decade, recently accounting for about 40% of the total. African countries such as Benin and Senegal are among the major buyers.
Export tariffs and minimum pricing have been set by India, and broken and non-basmati white rice varieties cannot be exported. In reaction, prices rose to a 15-year high in August, with purchasers from the most vulnerable importing countries delaying orders. Some people asked for exemptions. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, rice was still 24% higher in October than it was a year ago.
El Nio, which normally wilts crops across Asia, may further tighten the global rice market at a time when global inventories are on track to fall for the third year in a row. Due to dry weather, Thailand’s paddy yield is expected to dip 6% in 2023-24, according to the Thai government. While India’s policy may eventually benefit cash-strapped consumers in the world’s most populous country, the same cannot be said for needy people in Africa and Asia, where billions rely on a robust global rice supply.