The International Monetary Fund (IMF) boosted its prediction of India’s GDP growth for 2024-25 by 20 basis points to 7%, citing an increase in private spending, particularly in rural areas.
The IMF anticipates growth to fall to 6.5% in 2025-26, which is consistent with its April WEO projections. GDP expanded by 8.2% in 2023-24. That was higher than the 7% predicted in 2022-23, thanks to a stronger-than-expected expansion of 7.8% in the fourth quarter, according to the National Statistical Office’s (NSO) provisional GDP growth projections. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects the Indian economy to grow at 7.2% in FY25.
The IMF report improved China’s GDP prediction for calendar year 2024 by 40 basis points to 5%, citing a rebound in private consumption and strong exports in the first quarter. According to the IMF, India’s growth predictions for the calendar year are 7.3% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025.
India and China’s growth rates have been revised upward, accounting for over half of total world growth. However, the outlook for the next five years remains bleak, owing primarily to fading momentum in rising Asia.
The IMF’s global growth predictions for calendar year 2024 remain constant at 3.2%, with a modest increase to 3.3% in 2025.