In addition to serving as a wake-up call for the developed world, led by the United States, the recent landmark decision on emission reduction by the International Court of Justice also conveyed a strong message to China and India. These three nations collectively accounted for 53% of 2024’s energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.
With over a third of global emissions, China continues to be the world’s top emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG), followed by the US and India. China and India were responsible for 62% of the growth in global emissions last year; of the big economies, India saw the fastest increase, rising by more than 4% annually.
India may need to accelerate its transition to renewable energy given its sharply increasing emissions. Pralhad Joshi, the Minister of New and Renewable Energy, stated earlier this month that India is leading the way in the global search for climate solutions by reaching 50% non-fossil fuel capacity five years ahead of the 2030 objective. According to the government, 242.8 gigawatts (Gw) of India’s 484.8 Gw installed capacity currently originate from low-carbon or renewable sources. Non-fossil sources were already a significant factor in 2005, when climate change first attracted international attention and 197 nations approved the Kyoto Protocol. By 2009, approximately 52 Gw, or 35% of India’s 147 Gw installed capacity, came from wind, hydro, and nuclear power.
Experts argue that even with recent advancements, the current renewable energy rollout may still be too slow to stop India’s sharp increase in emissions. The largest of the main economies, India’s carbon emissions increased 4.1% in 2024, more than three times China’s and four times the global average.
In order to prevent severe power shortages as early as 2027–2028, India will require more resources. The most economical course of action, with the biggest positive effects on the environment and society, would be to add an additional 100 Gw of renewable energy capacity by 2030, over the stated 500 Gw target. The additional 125 Gw needed for a green hydrogen environment is not included in these calculations.
Last year, 32% of the world’s electricity demand was satisfied by renewable energy sources, including hydro. That percentage was just 20% in India. Due to the extraordinary growth of renewable energy sources, coal’s proportion in China’s electricity mix has decreased from 70% to 58% over the last ten years. Coal’s percentage in India has remained around 75%, indicating that thermal power is still in charge. As India, currently the third-largest emitter in the world, is ready to submit its revised nationally determined contribution to the UNFCCC by October, these issues are very real. This will detail emission reductions and set clean energy targets for 2035. Targets by themselves are meaningless. In order to overtake non-fossil fuel capacity, there must be sufficient demand and transmission capacity.