India has surpassed Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy and is projected to overtake Germany to claim the third spot within the next two and a half to three years, according to NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam.
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) April 2025 World Economic Outlook forecasts India’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the fiscal year 2025-26 (FY26) to reach $4.187 trillion, slightly ahead of Japan’s $4.186 trillion GDP for the calendar year 2025.
Looking further ahead, the IMF expects the gap between India and Japan to widen. By FY27, India’s GDP is projected to grow to $4.601 trillion, while Japan’s GDP for 2026 is estimated at $4.373 trillion.
India’s economy size for FY25 has been revised upward to Rs 331 trillion, compared to the earlier estimate of Rs 324 trillion.
Despite this growth in size, India’s GDP growth rate is expected to slow to 6.5% in FY25, down from 9.2% in the previous year. Meanwhile, Japan’s economy was valued at $4 trillion in 2024.