India is expected to have the highest per-capita income growth in the world, at 5.4% per year between 2024 and 2033, allowing it and other emerging nations to drive global consumption of agricultural and fishery products in the coming decade.
India and Southeast Asian countries are expected to gain influence in driving global food and agricultural consumption as their urban populations grow, production increases due to technological advances, and income levels rise, supplanting China’s waning influence and causing changes in global agricultural patterns.
While China provided 28% of global consumption growth in the previous decade, its proportion of new demand over the next decade is predicted to shrink to 11%, owing to the stability of nutrition patterns, slower income development, and a declining population. Conversely, India and Southeast Asia will account for 31% of global consumption growth by 2033.
India’s trend GDP growth rate is currently between 6.5-7%. The population growth rate has been around 1%. This implies that per-capita income growth should be around 5.5% on a trend basis. India is also expected to account for 19% of the global sugar supply by 2033. In India, despite improved crop yields and extraction rates, the increase is expected to be lower due to the diversion of sugarcane to ethanol production, and the growth in sugarcane production is expected to be driven primarily by higher crop yields, as acreage is not expected to expand due to
competition from other (agricultural) crops.
The most significant decrease happened in global milk markets, with the OECD’s stake falling from 51% to 41%. India accounted for nearly all of the movement, raising its share from 14% to 23%.
Dairy is predicted to be the fastest-growing of the livestock sectors, with India and Pakistan leading in absolute milk production growth due to improved yields and an increase in milking animals.
Global wheat consumption is anticipated to be 11% higher in 2033 than in 2021-2023, with India, Pakistan, Egypt, and China accounting for more than half of the increase. Meanwhile, India is expected to continue its strong import growth of vegetable oil to meet local demand, with per-capita consumption increasing by 1% per year by 2033.
In India, despite improved crop yields and extraction rates, the increase is expected to be lower due to the diversion of sugarcane to ethanol production, and the growth in sugarcane production is expected to be driven primarily by higher crop yields, as acreage is not expected to expand due to competition from other (agricultural) crops.
India’s dominance in cereal and sugar production is predicted to continue unabated in the area, while India’s share in sugar may decline as Thailand’s share rises due to productivity-based yield advances.