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  • The IMF has raised India’s GDP growth forecast for FY26 to 7.3%, up by 0.7 percentage points from its October projection, citing stronger-than-expected economic performance.
  • The upgrade reflects a robust third-quarter outcome and strong momentum carrying into the fourth quarter of FY26.
  • India’s GDP growth forecast for FY27 has also been revised upward to 6.4% from the earlier estimate of 6.2%.
  • Growth is expected to moderate to 6.4% in FY27 and FY28 as cyclical and temporary factors begin to fade.
  • Official data show India’s GDP grew 8% during April-September FY26, driven by and 8.2% expansion in the July-September quarter.
  • The First Advance Estimates project India’s economy to grow 7.4% in FY26, compared with 6.5% growth in FY25.
  • Inflation in India is expected to return close to target levels after easing sharply in 2025, supported by subdued food prices.
  • The Reserve Bank of India aims to keep headline CPI inflation at 4%, with a tolerance band of ±2%.
  • Global growth is projected to remain resilient at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, with a slight upward revision for 2026.
  • Growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to stay just above 4% in both 2026 and 2027.
  • China’s growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward by 0.2 percentage points to 5%.
  • Global headline inflation is expected to decline from 4.1% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026 and further to 3.4% in 2027.