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  • India faces rising inflation risks due to heatwaves, weak monsoon forecasts, and high oil prices
  • Temperatures touching 47°C in northern regions have led to record power demand as cooling needs surge
  • Forecast of below-normal monsoon rains (June-September) threatens agricultural output
  • Inflation expected to rise above 5% in FY27, higher than Reserve Bank of India projection of 4.6%
  • Oil prices above $100/barrel (due to global tensions) adding to inflationary pressure
  • Weak monsoon may force farmers to rely on diesel-powered irrigation, increasing costs
  • Inflation could rise further to ~5.8% if rainfall weakens significantly
  • Government has issued advisories to manage heatwave impact and health risks
  • Policy impact: RBI may delay rate cuts or even consider tightening & Inflation outlook remains uncertain
  • Some cushioning factors: Strong buffer stocks of rice and wheat & Improved irrigation and climate-resilient seeds
  • Weather risk persists: ~30% chance of drought-like conditions
  • Key concern months: July-August (sowing period)