India is finally gearing up to release its first nationwide long-term low-carbon development strategy, a move that’s been long overdue. According to a senior official involved in the effort, the plan is expected to be unveiled later this year and will bring India in line with major global emitters like China, the United States, and the European Union, all of whom already have similar strategies in place.
This upcoming strategy will outline India’s emissions pathway from 2040 to 2070, the year the country has committed to achieving net-zero emissions. What makes this plan significant is that it will be grounded in official data prepared by a high-level committee set up by NITI Aayog in April last year. The committee has modeled several scenarios to guide India’s transition, helping policymakers weigh the potential economic impacts across jobs, GDP, income, and sectoral growth.
A national carbon budget would also allow the government to better manage its limited carbon resources, allocating them across states and sectors in a fair and efficient manner. That said, India faces mounting pressure to act quickly. A senior official from the UN’s climate body, the UNFCCC, emphasized this urgency at the recent Asia Climate Summit in Bangkok, pointing out that India is currently the fastest-growing major emitter in absolute terms. The numbers tell the story. In 2024, India’s carbon dioxide emissions from energy rose by over 4% to roughly 3 billion tons about 8.3% of the global total. While that’s still far less than China’s 11 billion tons or the US’s 4.6 billion, India’s emissions are growing at a much faster rate.
It’s taken NITI Aayog’s expert committee more than two years to map out various low-carbon scenarios. Their findings are expected to play a crucial role in helping the Prime Minister’s climate change council prioritize sectors and craft forward-looking policies. However, the agency hasn’t made any public statements yet. Meanwhile, experts expect emissions to rise again in 2025 due to increasing coal consumption.
While many developed nations use national carbon budgets to meet the Paris Agreement’s temperature targets, India’s efforts so far have been more fragmented.
India’s energy use is still rising rapidly. In 2024, primary energy consumption jumped by 4.6% more than twice the global average of 1.8% with coal remaining the dominant source. That same year, global energy-related CO₂ emissions hit an all-time high of 40.8 gigatons, with India contributing a growing share.
In short, while India has taken steps in the right direction, this long-awaited national strategy could finally provide the clarity and structure needed to steer the country toward a cleaner and more sustainable future.